While National Weather Service forecasters had warned broadly about flash flooding in central Texas in advance, Texas state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon said the best weather models could not predict precisely where the most intense rainfall would fall, or that the deluge would stall out over a flood-prone basin.

As the death toll continues to rise and search and rescue teams continue to look for victims, the devastating flood in Kerr County, Texas show not only the vital role of weather forecasters, but also climate researchers who help make more accurate predictive models,