YR4 has grabbed headlines lately, after NASA calculated a 1-in-32 chance of an impact in 2032 – the highest chance ever for an asteroid of hazardous size. Thankfully, new observations have dropped that probability to almost zero – for Earth,

YR4 could strike Earth in 2032. Its size ranges from 40 to 90 meters. The asteroid could cause significant damage, especially to populated areas. The impact probability has decreased recently. NASA and the European Space Agency are monitoring it closely.

Within this short window of study, scientists have given the asteroid a 3.1% chance of colliding with Earth. That’s 1-in-32 odds. This is the highest chance of a collision ever given to an observed asteroid.

The chances that an asteroid hits Earth in 2032 are now at their highest since the object was first discovered, according to NASA.

An asteroid discovered in December and named YR4 has a small chance of hitting Earth in 2032. But scientists keep changing the odds. We asked an expert to break it down for us.

NASA has revised the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth on December 22, 2032, reducing it to 0.28%. There are indications it may collide with the Moon instead.